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    李方正, 解爽, 李雄. 基于PLSR模型的北京市中心城绿色空间演变驱动机制研究(1992—2016年)[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2019, 41(4): 116-126. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20180250
    引用本文: 李方正, 解爽, 李雄. 基于PLSR模型的北京市中心城绿色空间演变驱动机制研究(1992—2016年)[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2019, 41(4): 116-126. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20180250
    Li Fangzheng, Xie Shuang, Li Xiong. Evolutionary driving mechanism of greenspace in central Beijing City based on the PLSR model[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2019, 41(4): 116-126. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20180250
    Citation: Li Fangzheng, Xie Shuang, Li Xiong. Evolutionary driving mechanism of greenspace in central Beijing City based on the PLSR model[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2019, 41(4): 116-126. DOI: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20180250

    基于PLSR模型的北京市中心城绿色空间演变驱动机制研究(1992—2016年)

    Evolutionary driving mechanism of greenspace in central Beijing City based on the PLSR model

    • 摘要:
      目的由城市绿地、农田、林地、湿地和水域构成的绿色空间对于保障社会和谐、经济高效、生态宜人和居住舒适,以及维护城市可持续发展具有重要意义。理清其景观动态的变化及其驱动机制对于指导北京市中心城绿色空间合理规划以提升其大生态环境具有重要意义。
      方法以北京市中心城为研究范围,选取1992、2000、2008、2016年4个时间节点进行绿色空间演变驱动机制研究,利用偏最小二乘回归分析法探究社会经济因素、自然因素对绿色空间演变的影响作用。
      结果社会经济因素与各地类面积演变的偏最小二乘回归分析结果显示:地区生产总值、人均GDP、常住人口、建设用地面积4项影响因子对各地类面积演变的变量投影重要性VIP值均大于1;自然因素中影响各地类斑块类型面积指数演变的变量投影重要性VIP值均小于1。
      结论社会经济是北京市中心城绿色空间演变的直接驱动力,人口规模的增加、地区经济的增长、产业结构的调整是导致绿色空间演变的重要因素,而自然因素对绿色空间演变的影响作用相对静态,且不如社会经济因素明显。本研究科学合理地阐明了影响绿色空间发展的关键因素,为制定合理科学的绿地发展、保护政策提供参考依据。

       

      Abstract:
      ObjectiveThe greenspace composed of urban green space, farmland, woodland, wetland and water area is of great significance to ensure social harmony, economic efficiency, ecological comfort and living comfort, so as to maintain the sustainable development of the city. It is of great significance to clarify the dynamic change of landscape and its driving mechanism to guide the reasonable planning of green space in central Beijing so as to improve its large ecological environment.
      MethodIn this study, the central Beijing City was taken as the research area, and four time nodes of 1992, 2000, 2008 and 2016 were selected to study the driving mechanism of green space evolution. The influence of social and economic factors, natural factors and policy factors on the evolution of greenspace was investigated by partial least squares regression analysis.
      ResultPartial least-squares regression analysis results of social and economic factors and the evolution of regional area showed that the four influencing factors of regional gross output value, per capita GDP, permanent population and construction land area to the variable importance VIP value of the evolution of regional area were all greater than 1. Among the natural factors, the variable projection importance VIP value affecting the evolution of the area index of the type of plaques in various regions was less than 1.
      ConclusionThe research shows that social economy is the direct driving force of the green space evolution in the central Beijing City, and the increase of population scale, the growth of regional economy and the adjustment of industrial structure are the important factors leading to the green space evolution. The influence of natural factors on the evolution of green space is relatively static and less obvious than that of social and economic factors. This study scientifically and rationally clarifies the key factors affecting the development of green space, and provides a reference for formulating reasonable and scientific policies on green space development and protection.

       

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