Carbon trading price changes in China's carbon emission rights trading trials based on classification analysis: a discussion on forestry carbon sequestration afforestation

ObjectiveIn order to strengthen the management of China's carbon trading market price, promote the development of forestry and stimulate the initiative of carbon sequestration foresters, the study analyzed the carbon trading price of China's carbon trading pilot market since 2013, in order to provide reference for relevant management decision-making.

MethodThe study selected actual transaction data of China's carbon emissions rights trading market from June 2013 to March 2018, and adopted the method of cluster analysis and discriminant analysis in classification analysis and analyzed the carbon trading trials price changes since 2013 in China.

ResultThe results showed that China's carbon emissions trading trial price was fluctuant and regular. The period in June or July and January or February was the most active period of the carbon trading, and in periodic fluctuation of price, the transaction price changed obviously. Trading price played an important role. The price of carbon trading was divided into three categories, i.e., the price of carbon trading from January to May was the first category, carbon trading price from June to July was the second category, and the trading price from August to December was the third category. In addition, in the periodical fluctuations of carbon trading prices, in every year in April and September, the price of carbon trading had a significant impact on the classification. Furthermore, the study also discussed forestry carbon sink afforestation, and pointed out that the revenue of forestry carbon sink afforestation was much lower than the current average cost of it. At present, the average cost of forestry carbon sink afforestation was about 28 812.08 CNY /ha, and the revenue of forest carbon sink of 30 years was about 14 102.58 CNY/ha, which was an urgent problem to be solved in current carbon trading management.

ConclusionChina's carbon emission trading market price has obvious fluctuation and regularity, and the fluctuation range of price is large. There are three similar "Ⅴ" changes in the price of carbon trading over the course of a year. At present, the average cost of forestry carbon sink afforestation is much higher than the average revenue obtained at the current carbon market transaction price, which is not cost-effective economically, which should be noticed.