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保定市8种乔灌木开花始期对气候变化响应的积分回归分析

裴顺祥 郭泉水 贾渝彬 辛学兵 许格希

裴顺祥, 郭泉水, 贾渝彬, 辛学兵, 许格希. 保定市8种乔灌木开花始期对气候变化响应的积分回归分析[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2015, 37(7): 11-18. doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20130423
引用本文: 裴顺祥, 郭泉水, 贾渝彬, 辛学兵, 许格希. 保定市8种乔灌木开花始期对气候变化响应的积分回归分析[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2015, 37(7): 11-18. doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20130423
PEI Shun-xiang, GUO Quan-shui, JIA Yu-bin, XIN Xue-bing, XU Ge-xi. Integral regressive analysis on the responses of first flowering date of eight woody species to climate change in Baoding, China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2015, 37(7): 11-18. doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20130423
Citation: PEI Shun-xiang, GUO Quan-shui, JIA Yu-bin, XIN Xue-bing, XU Ge-xi. Integral regressive analysis on the responses of first flowering date of eight woody species to climate change in Baoding, China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2015, 37(7): 11-18. doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20130423

保定市8种乔灌木开花始期对气候变化响应的积分回归分析

doi: 10.13332/j.1000-1522.20130423
基金项目: 

林业公益性行业科研专项(200804001)

详细信息
    作者简介:

    裴顺祥,助理研究员。主要研究方向:森林生态学。Email:psx0309@sina.com 地址:102300北京市门头沟区水闸西路1号中国林业科学研究院华北林业实验中心。

    责任作者:

    郭泉水,研究员。主要研究方向:森林生态学。Email:guoqs@caf.ac.cn 地址:100091北京市海淀区东小府1号中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所。

Integral regressive analysis on the responses of first flowering date of eight woody species to climate change in Baoding, China

  • 摘要: 基于1986—2011年保定市气象和物候观测资料,运用积分回归法研究常见的8种乔灌木开花始期对气候变化的响应,并建立开花始期积分回归预测模型。结果显示:保定市8种乔灌木的开花始期受气温、降水量和日照等3种气候要素的共同影响,但各气候要素影响作用的大小不同,总体表现为气温>降水>日照。不同气候要素对各树种开花始期的影响方式、“驱动”力度与时俱变。在开花始期前几个月,各气候要素对物候影响的正负效应同时出现;除榆树和栆外,其他6个树种开花始期前几天的气温对开花始期的影响均为负效应。利用积分回归法建立的多变量预测模型具有较高的精度。对开花始期模拟的结果显示,当3月中旬气温改变1℃,降水量改变1mm,日照时长改变1h,8种乔灌木开花始期将改变约0.1~1.6d。

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2013-11-12
  • 修回日期:  2013-11-12
  • 刊出日期:  2015-07-31

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