摘要:
为了更好地评估我国森林碳汇对气候变化的影响和对经济发展的贡献,促进碳汇市场的发展,采用国民经济 核算(SNA)的方法,根据最新的森林资源清查数据,对2003—2008 年的森林碳汇进行了核算研究。结果表明, 2003—2008 年,我国森林碳储量、碳汇量是增加的,二者年均增长3.55% 左右。在价值核算上,2003 年我国森林碳 储量价值为7 291.85 亿元,2008 年为7 286.30 亿元,年均减少约0.015%。2003、2008 年森林碳汇价值量分别为 258.67 亿和258.51 亿元,年均减少0.034%,这主要是由于森林碳汇价格下降引起的。另外,2003 年我国森林碳汇 总产值约占林业总产值的4.41%,2008 年约占林业总产值的1郾79%。2003—2008 年,森林碳汇的eaGDP (environment adjusted GDP)增长速度为17.21%,超过了同期GDP 的平均增长速度(9.5%),但在此期间,森林碳存 量价值、流量价值均有所下降。研究也表明,我国森林碳汇对经济的影响尤其是对GDP 的影响大约在0.1% ~ 0.2%之间,其经济潜力并不是十分巨大。研究建议,需要对森林碳汇市场有一个清楚的认识,一味地强调森林碳 汇的市场作用和空间并不利于解决森林生态、气候变化等问题,更不利于林业的长期发展。
Abstract:
In order to better assess the impact of climate change and evaluate the contribution of forest carbon sinks to economic development, as well as to promote the development of carbon sequestration market in China, this paper uses the method of System of National Accounts ( SNA) to study forest carbon sequestration value accounting from 2003 to 2008 in China according to the latest forest resources inventory data. The results showed that from 2003 to 2008, China's forest carbon stocks and carbon sequestration both increased, and the average annual growth was about 3.55%. Values of forest carbon stocks in 2003 and 2008 in China were 729.185 billion and 728.630 billion CNY respectively, an average annual decrease of 0.015%. The values of forest carbon sinks were 25.867 billion and 25.851 billion CNY in 2003 and 2008, an average annual decrease of 0.034%, mainly due to the decline in price of forest carbon sinks. In addition, the output value of forest carbon sinks was about 4.41% of total output value of forestry in 2003, and accounted for 1.79% in 2008. From 2003 to 2008, the eaGDP(environment adjusted GDP) growth rate of forest carbon sinks in China was 17.21%, exceeding the average growth rate of 9.5% for GDP at the same period, but in the meantime, the stock value and flow value of forest carbon sinks all declined. The study also showed that the impact of forest carbon sinks on the economy in China, particularly on the GDP ranged in 0.1% -0.2%, its economic potential is not very huge. The study suggests that in China,we should have a clear understanding on the forest carbon sink market in the future, blindly emphasizing the market role of forest carbon sinks and its economic development potential is not conducive to solve the problems of forest ecosystems, climate change, etc. , also is not good for long-term development of forestry itself.
百度学术
下载:
