Prediction and analysis of the global suitability of <i>Lymantria dispar</i> based on MaxEnt

Wang Yanjun; Gao Tai; Shi Juan

doi:10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200416

Journal of Beijing Forestry University > 2021 > 43(9): 59-69. > DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200416

Wang Yanjun, Gao Tai, Shi Juan. Prediction and analysis of the global suitability of Lymantria dispar based on MaxEnt[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2021, 43(9): 59-69. DOI: 10.12171/j.1000-1522.20200416

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Prediction and analysis of the global suitability of Lymantria dispar based on MaxEnt

Key Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

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Received Date: December 23, 2020
Revised Date: January 27, 2021
Available Online: April 27, 2021
Published Date: October 14, 2021

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Abstract

Abstract

Objective Lymantria dispar (Linnaeus) is a leaf-eating international quarantine pest, which has caused serious economic losses to many countries and regions in the world. In this study, environmental variables limiting the distribution of Lymantria dispar were screened out, and MaxEnt software was used to predict the global adaptation range of Lymantria dispar under current and future climatic conditions, so as to clarify the adaptation range of Lymantria dispar under different climatic conditions.
Method We used ArcGIS software to set up buffer zones to screen the global distribution data of Lymantria dispar. We used MaxEnt, SPSS and ArcGIS software to screen four kinds of environmental variables, i.e. biological climate variable, monthly total precipitation, monthly mean maximum temperature and monthly mean minimum temperature, according to the contribution rate of environmental variables, knife cutting method and variable correlation analysis. We used R software to calculate the regularization multiplier and feature classes and other factors to adjust the parameters of MaxEnt model. We used MaxEnt model to predict the global distribution range of Lymantria dispar under current and future climatic conditions.
Result The distribution data of 734 Lymantria dispar were obtained by buffer screening. In the MaxEnt model results, the test omission rate was in high agreement with the theoretical omission rate, and the AUC value of the model was 0.940. MaxEnt model predicted that Lymantria dispar was mainly distributed in most parts of Europe, central and eastern North America, western and eastern Asia, and less in Africa, Oceania and South America under current conditions. In addition, Lymantria dispar boundaries in the northern hemisphere will shift to the north under future climatic conditions, and the areas of high and moderate adaptability in North America and Eurasia will expand significantly.
Conclusion The distribution of Lymantria dispar is influenced by a variety of environmental variables and temperature and precipitation are consistent with the specific development stage of Lymantria dispar. The predicted results of MaxEnt model can reflect the distribution characteristics of Lymantria dispar in the world. This study can provide theoretical basis for prevention and control of Lymantria dispar and establishment of relevant quarantine measures.
- Lymantria dispar,
- MaxEnt,
- adaptive area prediction,
- CMIP6

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Prediction and analysis of the global suitability of Lymantria dispar based on MaxEnt