Simulation and prediction of potential distribution area of Euproctis pseudoconspersa under climate change in China

Objective Camellia oleifera is a woody oleiferous plant with high economic and ecological value. Euproctis pseudoconspersa is one of the main pests of Camellia oleifera, which seriously restricts the yield and quality of C. oleifera. In order to provide scientific basis for early warning and specific prevention and control of the Euproctis pseudoconspersa, the potential distribution of E. pseudoconspersa was simulated and predicted in this study.

Method Based on the distribution data and biological climate data of E. pseudoconspersa in China, MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the suitable area for E. pseudoconspersa in China under the current climate, and the distribution range and potential suitable area of E. pseudoconspersa in China in the 2050 and 2070 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios, and then the dominant environmental variables affecting the distribution of its potential suitable area were analyzed.

Result (1) The dominant environmental variables affecting the distribution of suitable habitat of E. pseudoconspersa were precipitation of the driest month, annual precipitation, min. temperature of the coldest month, and the mean diurnal range (mean of monthly (max. temp – min. temp)). The optimum conditions were precipitation of the driest month of 28−148 mm, annual precipitation of 1 290−2 080 mm, the min. temperature of the coldest month of 1.0−10.1 ℃, and mean diurnal range of 7.2−8.5 ℃. (2) Under the current climate conditions, the total suitable area of E. pseudoconspersa accounted for 20.0% of China’s land area, mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China, with a high suitable area of 642 000 km², a medium suitable area of 618 000 km², and a low suitable area of 660 000 km². (3) In the next two periods and three climate scenarios, the suitable area of Camellia oleifera moth will be enlarged to different degrees, with the newly increased area of 93 000−330 000 km² and the migration distance of geographical distribution center between 24.4−125.1 km. The more obvious the climate warming was, the more the potential distribution area increased, and the farther the geographical distribution center moved.

Conclusion E. pseudoconspersa has a wide range of habitats in China, including almost all the provinces in southern China. In the future climate change scenario, the suitable habitat of E. pseudoconspersa will expand northward, westward and other high latitude inland areas. Therefore, it is suggested that relevant departments should make plans and policies in advance to strengthen the observation and control of E. pseudoconspersa, so as to reduce its losses to Camellia oleifera industry.